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The Australian Tertiary Admission Rank (ATAR) is a critical measure used for university admissions in New South Wales (NSW) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). This preliminary report on the scaling of the 2024 NSW Higher School Certificate (HSC) provides key insights into the calculation and distribution of ATARs, offering students, educators, and policymakers a clearer understanding of how results are standardised. While a more detailed report will be released in May 2025, this initial overview highlights the most important findings.
What is Scaling in the HSC?
Scaling in the HSC is the process used to adjust raw HSC marks to fairly compare students across different subjects when calculating the ATAR. Since some subjects have harder content or more competitive cohorts, scaling ensures that students are not disadvantaged or advantaged based on their subject choices alone.
The Universities Admissions Centre (UAC) scales HSC marks based on:
- The strength of the subject cohort (how well students in that subject perform overall).
- The difficulty of the subject compared to others.
- The spread of marks across all students.
Subjects like Mathematics Extension 2 and Physics typically scale higher, while subjects with a broader range of student performance, like English Standard, may scale lower. However, high raw marks will always be more beneficial than relying on scaling alone, making subject selection based on strengths and interests the best approach.
Key Insights from the 2024 ATAR Scaling Process
- Consistency in Scaling Procedures: There were no changes to the methodology for calculating ATARs in 2024. As in previous years, the ATAR was determined based on a student’s best 10 eligible units, ensuring consistency in the ranking process.
- Cohort Statistics: A total of 57,194 students received an ATAR in 2024, marking an increase of 1,671 students compared to 2023. The gender distribution was 46.3% male, 53.6% female, and 0.1% non-binary or undisclosed.
- Performance Trends:
- 17.8% of students achieved an ATAR of 90.00 or above.
- 35.5% received at least 80.00, while 52.6% achieved 70.00 or above.
- The median ATAR was 71.55, slightly higher than in 2023. Notably, females had a higher median ATAR (72.40) than males (70.40).
- Top-Performing Students: A total of 51 students achieved the highest possible ATAR of 99.95, with a mix of government and non-government school backgrounds and a diverse range of subject selections.
- Interpreting HSC vs. Scaled Marks: The report emphasises that a NSW Education Standards Authority (NESA) HSC mark reflects a student’s achievement in a specific course, while a scaled mark standardises that result across the entire HSC cohort (74,291 students). Since scaled marks account for the difficulty and competition within a subject, they are often lower than HSC marks, except at the highest levels.
- Stability in Scaled Mark Distributions: For most subjects, scaled mark distributions remained stable from 2023 to 2024. Variability primarily occurred in small-entry subjects, where enrolment fluctuations can lead to larger changes in scaling outcomes.
Navigating ATAR Contributions
A common concern among students is how different subjects contribute to their ATAR. The report clarifies that scaled marks are based on both a subject’s overall performance and an individual student’s ranking within that subject. While some courses have higher average scaling than others, there is no systematic disadvantage or advantage for specific subject groups.
Distribution of 2024 Marks by Course
This dataset provides a detailed distribution of HSC performance bands across various subjects. We have featured the most popular subjects that are widely studied (filtered for at least 1,000 enrolments in 2024). Below are some key insights:
Performance Trends Across Courses
- Subjects with the Highest Band 6 Percentage:
- Ancient History (10%), Business Studies (11%), and Chemistry (11%) have a significant proportion of students achieving Band 6.
- Drama (23%), Economics (14%), and Music 1 (20%) also had strong representation in Band 6.
- Subjects with High Band 5 and 4 Percentages:
- The majority of students fall within Band 4 and Band 5 across most subjects.
- Biology (29% in Band 5, 35% in Band 4) and Mathematics Standard 2 (19% in Band 5, 30% in Band 4) highlight the large distribution in mid-range bands.
- Subjects with Notable Band 3 and Band 2 Percentages:
- English Standard (54% Band 4, 25% Band 3) has a significant number of students in the mid-range.
- Engineering Studies (26% Band 3, 5% Band 2) and Physics (21% Band 3, 11% Band 2) show a notable spread into the lower bands.
Observations Based on Course Groupings
- STEM vs. Humanities:
- STEM subjects (e.g., Chemistry, Physics, Mathematics Advanced) tend to have more students in Band 6 and 5.
- Humanities subjects (e.g., History, Geography, Business Studies) have a broader spread across Bands 4 and 3, with fewer students in Band 6.
- Mathematics Trends:
- Mathematics Advanced had strong results, with 22% of students in Band 6 and 28% in Band 5.
- Mathematics Standard 1 Exam had a wider distribution, with only 3% of students in Band 6 but 35% in Band 4.
- Creative Arts Performance:
- Music 1 and Drama had some of the highest percentages of students in Band 6 and Band 5.
- Visual Arts (17% Band 6, 50% Band 5) showed a concentration at the top end.
Trends in HSC Subject Scaling for 2024
HSC scaling trends in 2024 follow familiar patterns, with mathematically intensive subjects like Mathematics Extension 2 and Mathematics Extension 1 receiving favourable scaling adjustments due to the strong performance of their cohorts. While some science subjects, such as Chemistry and Physics, experience moderate downward scaling, they remain competitive choices for students aiming for high ATARs.
On the other hand, subjects with a broader range of students, particularly in English and the Humanities, generally experience larger downward adjustments. Courses like English Advanced, History Extension, and Economics tend to see significant reductions in their scaled scores. While scaling can influence ATAR calculations, the key to success lies in choosing subjects that align with your strengths and interests rather than focusing solely on scaling advantages.Let’s take a closer look at the HSC scaling patterns for 2024.
Highest Scaling Subjects for 2024: “The Top 10”
Source: Universities Admissions Centre
Note: The scaling report provides unit scores based on a 50-mark scale. For easier interpretation, we are presenting these scores as if they were out of 100.
Lowest Scaling Subjects for 2024: “The Bottom 10”
Source: Universities Admissions Centre
Key Takeaways
- Mathematics courses, particularly Extension 2, scale well, reinforcing their reputation as high-value subjects in the ATAR calculation. Maths Extension 2 was the only subject that got scaled up.
- Humanities-based subjects and standard sciences tend to scale down, possibly due to broader accessibility and a wider range of student performance.
- English subjects face the most severe negative scaling, which could impact subject selection for students aiming for high ATARs.
- Subjects with broader, less selective student cohorts tend to scale lower.
- Mathematics Standard 1 Exam has the lowest scaled score (26.8), making it the most significantly adjusted subject.
- Creative and applied subjects, despite strong raw performance, often face downward scaling.
- Students should focus on strengths rather than just scaling factors when selecting subjects, as scaling is only one component of ATAR calculations
Subject Group Scaled Scores by Percentile
In this section, we explore how scores are adjusted across different percentiles using scaling curves. These curves provide a visual representation of the marking process:
- Below the Reference Line: When a curve dips below the reference line, it indicates harsher marking—raw scores are scaled down more significantly.
- At or Above the Reference Line: When the curve stays at or above the reference line (reflecting a 1:1 relationship), it means the marking is more favourable, with minimal scaling adjustments.
This visualisation helps you quickly understand how the scaling impacts the final scores for each subject.
HSC Mathematics Scaled Scores By Percentile
This graph visualises how scaled scores change across percentiles for different HSC Mathematics courses. Mathematics Extension 2 and Extension 1 scale the highest, with scores remaining close to their raw percentiles, reflecting the strong performance of their cohorts. Mathematics Advanced follows with a moderate downward adjustment, while Mathematics Standard 2 experiences a more noticeable drop, especially at lower percentiles. Mathematics Standard 1 Exam has the lowest scaling, with a steep decline in scores as percentiles decrease.
The dotted 1:1 reference line represents a scenario where scaled scores match raw percentiles. Since all courses scale below this line, it highlights the general downward adjustment of Mathematics courses, with higher-level courses (Extension 1 & 2) benefiting the most from scaling.
HSC English Scaled Scores By Percentile
This graph illustrates how scaled scores change across percentiles for various HSC English courses. English Extension 2 and Extension 1 scale the highest, maintaining scores close to their raw percentiles, reflecting their stronger, more competitive cohorts. English Advanced follows with moderate downward scaling, while English Standard and English EALD experience a more pronounced drop in scaled scores as percentiles decrease. English Studies Exam scales the lowest, with a steep decline, particularly at lower percentiles.
The dotted 1:1 reference line represents a scenario where scaled scores match raw percentiles. Since all English subjects fall below this line, it highlights general downward scaling in English, reinforcing the trend that higher-level courses (Extension 1 & 2) provide the best ATAR advantage.
HSC Science Scaled Scores By Percentile
This graph illustrates how scaled scores change across percentiles for different HSC Science courses. Physics and Chemistry scale the highest, maintaining scores closer to their raw percentiles, reflecting the strong performance of their cohorts. Biology and Engineering Studies follow with moderate downward scaling, showing a more gradual decline. Earth & Environmental Science and PDH&PE experience the most significant downward adjustments, particularly at lower percentiles, suggesting a broader range of student abilities.
The dotted 1:1 reference line represents a scenario where scaled scores match raw percentiles. Since all science subjects fall below this line, it highlights general downward scaling in sciences, though Physics and Chemistry remain the most competitive for ATAR contributions.
HSC Humanities Scaled Scores by Percentile
This graph illustrates scaled scores across percentiles for various HSC Humanities courses. History Extension and Economics scale the highest, maintaining strong performance at all percentiles, reflecting their more competitive cohorts. Modern History, Geography, and Legal Studies follow with moderate scaling, showing a steady decline in scores at lower percentiles. Community & Family Studies and Studies of Religion I & II experience the most downward scaling, particularly at lower percentiles, indicating a broader range of student abilities in these subjects.
The dotted 1:1 reference line represents a scenario where scaled scores match raw percentiles. Since most Humanities subjects fall below this line, it confirms moderate to significant downward scaling, with History Extension and Economics retaining the most competitive scaling for ATAR contributions.
Final Thoughts
Selecting your HSC subjects for 2025 should be guided by your strengths, interests, and future aspirations. While high-scaling subjects like Mathematics Extension and Economics can enhance your ATAR, success is ultimately determined by consistent performance and strong raw marks.
It’s also important to consider your career pathways — research university prerequisites and choose subjects that align with your long-term goals, whether in STEM, humanities, business, or the arts. For those interested in hands-on learning, VET courses and alternative pathways can provide valuable skills and career opportunities beyond the ATAR system.
In the end, the best HSC subject choices come from a mix of strategy, enjoyment, and balance. Pick subjects you are genuinely interested in, align them with your future plans, and maintain a sustainable workload.
Best wishes for your HSC journey in 2025!
