Australia’s secondary school mathematics performance on international assessments has been on the steady decline over the last 30 years. Broadly, Australian students performed relatively well in the early 2000s but have since experienced declines or stagnation in math outcomes, while many other countries – especially high performers in East Asia – have improved.
We review how Australia’s math scores have changed over time, compare these outcomes to other nations (including top performers), and discuss factors that may be influencing these trends, such as curriculum changes, teaching methods, education policies, and socioeconomic factors.
How well can Australian students apply real-world applications of Maths - PISA Mathematics Performance (2000–2022)
Australia’s PISA mathematics scores (mean points) for 15-year-olds have steadily declined from 2003 to 2022. Higher scores indicate better performance.
PISA assesses students' real-world application and ability to use mathematics, reading, and science in practical, everyday scenarios. It's about the "preparedness" of students for life beyond school.
In the early 2000s, Australian 15-year-olds scored well above the OECD average in mathematical literacy. For instance, Australia’s PISA 2003 math mean was 524 points, placing it among the top-performing nations. However, over subsequent PISA cycles Australia’s math scores fell consistently, reaching 491 by 2018 and 487 in 2022.
By 2018 Australia’s math score had sunk to about the OECD average (491 vs OECD 489) for the first time whereas previously Australia had always exceeded the OECD mean. The long-term decline is among the largest observed; only Finland saw a larger drop in math, although Finland’s performance remains slightly higher than Australia’s
Australia’s global ranking in PISA math slipped as well – **around 11th in the early 2000s to roughly 29th by 2018.** In practical terms, Australian 15-year-olds performed over 3 years of schooling behind the top performers in 2018 (e.g. behind students in parts of China and Singapore). By PISA 2022, nine education systems scored significantly above Australia in math (versus only a handful two decades earlier)
In short, PISA reveals a clear downward trend in Australia’s mathematics outcomes over the past ~20 years, eroding the advantage it once held. Notably, several countries that used to perform at a similar or lower level than Australia have surpassed it over time. As one analyst noted, “five countries whose mathematics performance was on par with Australia’s [in the early 2000s] now outperform Australia; and of 16 countries that scored lower than Australia, nine now outperform Australia and seven are now on par”. This indicates that while Australia’s performance stagnated or declined, many peers implemented improvements that boosted their results. By 2018, the highest-scoring OECD country in math was Japan (and Estonia for science), far ahead of Australia.
The overall top performers were the Chinese provinces of Beijing–Shanghai–Jiangsu–Zhejiang (B-S-J-Z) and Singapore, with math averages approaching 600. In comparison, Australia (around 490s) was 70–100 points behind these leaders – a gap on the order of 2–3 school years of learning.
This decline in relative standing is underscored by the fact that Australia fell to the OECD average in math for the first time, despite being a wealthy, developed nation with high educational aspirations
How well can Australian students apply curriculum knowledge and skills - TIMSS Mathematics Performance (1995–2019)
In contrast to PISA (which tests real-world “mathematical literacy”), TIMSS assesses curriculum-based math knowledge at Year 8. Australia has participated in TIMSS since its inception in 1995, allowing a nearly 30-year view of trends. Overall, the story for Year 8 mathematics is one of stagnation: Australian eighth-graders’ math achievement has flatlined around the 500-point mark on the TIMSS scale
In 1995, Australia’s Year 8 math mean was 509, and in 2015 it was still 505, virtually unchanged. During that 20-year period, there were minor fluctuations – a slight dip in the early 2000s (e.g. 496 in 2007) and a recovery by 2011 (505) – but no clear upward trajectory. Education analysts noted that from 1995–2015, Australian math results were static while many other countries improved, meaning Australia failed to keep pace
For example, countries like England, Ireland, Korea, and others saw gains in TIMSS over that period, whereas Australia’s performance was statistically flat. A positive development emerged in the latest cycle: TIMSS 2019 results showed a significant improvement in Australian Year 8 mathematics scores. The national average rose to 517 – Australia’s highest Year 8 math score to date and a meaningful jump from 2015
In 2015, Australia’s ranking in Year 8 math was modest, but by 2019 Australia was**“outperformed by just six countries”**, effectively placing Australian Year 8s in the top 10 worldwide for math. Those outperforming countries were the usual top performers (led by Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and others)
However, the most recent TIMSS cycle (2023) indicates that this gain was not fully sustained – Australia’s Year 8 math score in 2023 fell back to 509, roughly on par with the mid-1990s level
Factors Influencing Australia’s Math Performance
A variety of factors have been posited to explain Australia’s math performance trends. Here we explore several key influences:
- Curriculum Content and Standards: Research suggests that the Australian curriculum in mathematics may not be as rigorous or comprehensive as that of top-performing countries. A 2023 report found Australia’s science curriculum (analogous issues may apply to math) covers far fewer topics and lacks depth compared to curricula in countries like Singapore, Japan, or England. The curriculum development process was described as “broken” and not based on best practices. Ben Jensen, an education expert, argued that Australia’s long-term decline correlates with the introduction of the national curriculum in the 2010s, implying that content gaps might be undermining learning. He noted “massive holes” in what is taught – saying students are effectively learning about half the content in some subjects compared to peers overseas. In mathematics, if essential topics and skills are not covered in sufficient depth, it can limit student achievement. Thus, curriculum overhaul has been recommended as a remedy to ensure Australian students learn critical math concepts at a level comparable to global peers.
- Teaching Methods (Explicit Instruction vs Inquiry): How math is taught in classrooms is a subject of debate in Australia. As results have declined, there’s been scrutiny of pedagogical approaches. Some experts advocate a “mastery-focused” and explicit instruction model – systematically teaching fundamental skills and practicing them – while others support an inquiry-based, problem-solving approach. This debate came to a head during recent curriculum reviews: in 2022, the federal education minister argued that Australia needs to emphasize mastery of foundational math rather than solely inquiry learning. He linked improving rankings with adopting teaching methods that ensure students truly understand basic mathematical principles. Indeed, high-performing East Asian systems tend to use structured, mastery-oriented teaching, which might partly explain their success. The disagreement over teaching methods even delayed finalizing the national curriculum, reflecting how consequential this issue is seen. Explicit teaching of numeracy basics (like times tables, algebraic manipulation, etc.) has been championed as a way to boost results, given concerns that overly inquiry-based approaches might leave gaps. On the other hand, inquiry proponents say understanding concepts deeply (rather than rote learning) is key for long-term success. The mixed approaches and lack of consensus in Australia may have led to uneven teaching quality. Ensuring that teachers use effective, evidence-based strategies – possibly a blend of explicit instruction and guided problem-solving – is viewed as crucial. There is also emphasis on teacher professional development: equipping teachers with strong pedagogical content knowledge in math so they can confidently teach for understanding. In summary, refining math teaching practices toward proven methods is a target for improvement.
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- Teacher Expertise and Supply: Student performance is tightly linked to teacher quality and subject expertise. Australia faces challenges in ensuring every math class has a qualified, well-trained math teacher. There have been reports of a shortage of specialist math teachers, leading to “out-of-field” teaching (teachers with inadequate math background teaching the subject). This can affect student outcomes, especially in lower socio-economic or rural schools where attracting qualified staff is harder. The Office of the Chief Scientist has pointed out that enthusiastic, well-prepared teachers can significantly improve math outcomes, suggesting that investing in teacher training and support could help turn around declining results. Initiatives to improve teacher quality include raising standards for teacher education, providing ongoing upskilling in mathematics content and pedagogy, and creating career incentives for expert math teachers to stay in the profession. Without knowledgeable and confident math teachers, even a strong curriculum can fail in practice. Thus, strengthening the teaching workforce in mathematics is seen as a key factor in addressing performance issues.
- Education Policy and Culture: Broader policy settings and cultural attitudes toward education also influence performance. Over the past 30 years, Australia’s education landscape has seen changes in school funding models, an increase in standardized testing (e.g. NAPLAN domestically), and debates over the role of private vs public schooling. Some analysts argue that inconsistent policies and frequent reforms may have disrupted learning continuity. Others point to a cultural issue: perhaps math is not valued or encouraged enough among Australian students. High-performing countries often have cultures that emphasize effort in math, parental support, and student motivation in STEM fields. There is evidence from PISA surveys that Australian students’ attitudes toward math (like interest and belief in its value) have declined, which can affect achievement. However, these factors are harder to quantify. On the policy front, the focus has now shifted to evidence-based strategies to improve numeracy – for example, identifying struggling students early (through assessments) and intervening, encouraging more students to pursue advanced mathematics, and aligning high school math syllabi with international benchmarks. Additionally, investment in early childhood numeracy and making math learning engaging through real-world applications or technology are considered ways to boost performance. In essence, a combination of strong policy direction, sufficient funding (especially targeted to need), and a positive math learning culture is needed to support sustained improvement.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Australia’s mathematics performance over the past three decades has worsened in comparative terms, moving from the forefront toward the middle of the pack internationally. This trend has been met with growing alarm and a call to action among educators and policymakers. The data underscore key lessons: continuous improvement is necessary just to maintain standing when others are advancing, and neglecting core areas like math can lead to slippage in global rankings. Australia’s experience serves as a reminder that a high standard of living and strong economy do not automatically translate into high student achievement – it requires deliberate and effective educational practices. The country is now actively grappling with how to strengthen math education. By addressing curriculum gaps, elevating teaching quality, and mitigating socioeconomic disparities, Australia aims to restore and surpass its former performance levels. The challenge is substantial but not insurmountable. With strategic changes, Australia can aspire to rejoin the ranks of high-performing nations in mathematics in the years ahead, ensuring its students are well-equipped with the critical math skills needed for the modern world.
